By Christopher W. Larimer, University of Northern Iowa Professor of Political Science.
The previous blog focused on three data points the president can look to as being supportive of his chances in November. This blog does the same for his challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden.
1.) Polls consistently show the president is vulnerable on his handling of the pandemic and that Biden is perceived as capable of doing a better job on this issue. Indeed, for voters who see the pandemic as the “most important issue” (which is notable),” Biden is the overwhelming favorite.
2.) Both national polls and swing state polls show Biden doing well among female voters, polling ahead of where Hillary Clinton was with this group in 2016. Importantly for Biden, female voters outnumbered male voters in 2016 according to exit polls, and the same is expected in 2020.
3.) The number of voters casting a ballot by mail or absentee is expected to set records in many states, and a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Biden with a 36-point advantage among likely voters “who intend to vote early/absentee.”