Skip to Content

Trump and Ernst lead in Iowa

The presidential and senate races are heating up in Iowa.

According to a new Monmouth University poll, President Donald Trump is supported by 48% of Iowans, and Joe Biden has the support of 45%.

Another 3% are supporting Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and 3% are undecided. 

“Iowa looks to be more competitive than four years ago. There is a lot of parity between Trump and Biden in both the strength of their support and the preferences of key demographic groups,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. Trump won Iowa by nine points in 2016.

Monmouth reported, "The race remains tight when different likely voter models are applied. A model based on a higher level of turnout than 2016 puts the race at 48% Trump and 46% Biden while one reflecting lower turnout produces a similar 47% Trump and 47% Biden result. Republicans (36%) are somewhat more likely than Democrats (28%) to feel very optimistic about the 2020 presidential election, but a larger number of Democrats (46%) than Republicans (34%) say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year compared to past elections."

“One of the reasons Biden may do nominally better in a lower turnout scenario is that his voters are slightly more motivated. It’s  not a statistically significant difference, though, and this race is currently up for grabs no matter how you slice it,” said Murray.

In the U.S Senate election, Senator Joni Ernst has 48% support, and her Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield is at 45%.

Libertarian Rick Stewart earned 2%, independent Suzanne Herzog had 1%, and another 3% are undecided. 

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from July 30 to August 3, 2020 with 401 Iowa registered voters. 

Author Profile Photo

Daniel Winn

Morning Anchor

Skip to content