NOAA has released its winter outlook for the United States which calls for equal chances of below or above average temperatures for December, January, and February in eastern Iowa. That means temperatures could go either way. Most of the country is expected to see above average temperatures.
Temperatures are one half of the outlook, precipitation is the second half. The outlook calls for chances of above average precipitation and snow for eastern Iowa, especially in the northern half of the KWWL viewing area.
The outlooks are largely based on the el nino/la nina patterns found in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This year, the el nino is more neutral which means forecasters have to turn to long term trends and other climate patterns to produce a forecast.
These other patterns include the Arctic oscillation (AO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The AO’s predictability is limited to only just a couple of weeks but will have a big impact on the amount of arctic fronts that move in this winter.
The next outlook is scheduled to be released on November 21st.
Find NOAA’s full report here.